Jake Sullivan’s China visit: Seeking stability amid verbal sparring

Ahead of US National Security adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit to China on 27 August, the Chinese foreign ministry has made a strong statement to the US. 

On 25 August, the head of the ministry’s North American and Oceanian affairs department emphasised that the Taiwan issue is the first insurmountable red line in China-US relations, and that “Taiwan independence” is the greatest risk to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. China will express serious concerns, clarify its firm stance, and make solemn demands on the Taiwan issue, development rights and China’s strategic security.

The official also said that the US has repeatedly taken unreasonable measures against China, such as tariffs, export controls, investment reviews and unilateral sanctions, which have seriously damaged China’s legitimate rights and interests. China called for the US to stop politicising and securitising economic and trade issues.

Indeed, China’s main demands would pertain to the Taiwan issue and the US’s suppression of China in terms of tariffs, export controls, investment reviews and unilateral sanctions.

Reuters quoted a senior US official as saying that Sullivan will mainly discuss Taiwan, bilateral military talks, China’s support for Russia’s defence industry, and tensions in the South China Sea, North Korea, the Middle East and Myanmar.

Just after the US announced Sullivan’s visit to China, the US also announced sanctions on more than 80 Chinese companies and individuals that support Russia’s military industry. Chinese public opinion believes that this is the US’s usual tactic of “strike first and then talk”, aimed at gaining more bargaining chips for Sullivan.

Although this is Sullivan’s first visit to China since taking office as US National Security adviser, and the first visit to China by a US national security adviser in the past eight years, the verbal sparring between both sides before Sullivan’s visit suggests that the strategic communication between Politburo member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Sullivan may not yield much results.

With his withdrawal from the next presidential election and only a few months left in his term, Joe Biden has become the only US president since Ronald Reagan in 1980 to not visit China during his tenure.

Although some people believe that Sullivan’s visit to China may also explore the possibility of Biden visiting China before leaving office, it is unlikely given the current tense state of US-China relations. 

Because US-China relations have already deteriorated to a point of no return, even if Biden were to visit China, it would be difficult to achieve the desired results, and may even face backlash from anti-China sentiment in the US. It would create unfavourable variables for the election prospects of the Democratic Party, which had just managed to turn things around.

Meanwhile, considering the domestic election situation, the Biden administration also needs to stabilise US-China relations before the November US election to prevent US-China relations from spiralling out of control and becoming a negative factor for the Democratic Party. 

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris made only a brief mention of China in her speech at the recent Democratic Party convention. She emphasised that she will ensure that “America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century”. 

The Democratic Party’s new platform defines China as the “most consequential strategic competitor”, but reiterates the “one China” policy on Taiwan. This shows that the Democratic Party is unwilling to completely turn against China due to Taiwan and US-China competition.

At the same time, Joseph Wu, secretary-general of the National Security Council of Taiwan, and Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung, are visiting the US this week, the first high-level delegation from Taiwan since Taiwan President Lai Ching-te took office in May.

Beijing is certainly concerned about the US’s reception of Wu and Lin, as well as the content of their meeting. If US-Taiwan relations break through Beijing’s bottom line of the “one China” policy, China-US relations will undoubtedly face new shocks. 

Thus, Beijing’s primary concern when it comes to Sullivan’s visit to China is US-Taiwan relations. Wang Yi stressed during his meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 27 July that “Taiwan independence” is incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Strait. 

“We will counter every provocation by the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces, reduce the space for ‘Taiwan independence’, and work toward the goal of a complete national reunification,” he asserted. 

During his talks with Sullivan, Wang is expected to reiterate China’s position that it will resolutely oppose the development of official relations between the US and Taiwan, as well as make “serious demands” to the US. 

China’s dispute with the Philippines over the islands and reefs in the South China Sea will also be one of the topics of Sullivan’s visit to China. The US will urge China to exercise restraint on the issue and not bully the weaker side. Meanwhile, the Chinese side will ask the US not to fan the flames, or to stir up trouble and support the Philippines in provoking China. 

On the Russia-Ukraine war, Sullivan will demand that China stop supporting Russia’s defence industry and will maintain sanctions on Chinese entities and individuals that do so. Meanwhile, Wang will demand the US to stop smearing and framing Chinese firms and to remove unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction on them.  

While China and the US hold different positions on the situations in the Middle East, North Korea and Myanmar, the conflicts are not too sharp and both sides can still reach some consensus.

From a broader perspective, since Chinese President Xi Jinping and Biden met in San Francisco last year, although China-US relations have remained volatile, both sides have restored and established over 20 dialogue and communication mechanisms. The diplomatic, financial, law enforcement, climate change working teams, as well as the two militaries, have maintained communication. 

According to the head of the North American and Oceanian Affairs department, China-US relations are still at a critical juncture of being stabilised.

Overall, Sullivan’s China visit is intended to seek stability to prevent China-US relations from spiralling out of control due to issues related to Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Russia-Ukraine war. This would highlight the Biden administration’s ability to manage global affairs, diplomatically boosting the Democratic Party’s election bid.

For China, the coming years are a crucial period for economic transformation, developing new quality productive forces and expanding high-level opening up to the outside world. China certainly hopes that China-US relations will remain stable to ensure that the external environment does not continue to deteriorate. 

Thus, China will also use Sullivan’s visit to stabilise China-US relations and create conditions for another possible meeting between the Chinese and American heads of state at the G20 summit in Brazil in November.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “沙利文访华意在求稳”.

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