Could Trump 2.0 benefit China?
A possible re-election of Donald Trump portends big shifts in geopolitical relations and global trade. Lianhe Zaobao associate editor Han Yong Hong takes a look at China’s role amid such a possibility.
After former US president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump narrowly escaped a shooting on 13 July, the US presidential election seemed to be prematurely over.
Kamala Harris steps up
Trump looked set for an easy win amid a jump in popularity, until this week when incumbent President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and intention to pass the torch to the next generation — a show of wisdom in knowing when to step down.
Now, 59-year-old Vice-President Kamala Harris has stepped up, making the election in November more intriguing and interesting.
The New York Times published a special feature on 24 July, describing how Harris was quick to take control of the Democratic Party within 48 hours of Biden’s announcement. She not only won the support of party leaders and competitors, but also quickly raised US$100 million.
In fact, the Democrats were anxious about how to gracefully replace Biden after his disastrous performance during the televised debate. With Harris entering the fray, the Democratic Party and left-leaning media are eager to build her momentum, showing unity and avoiding a collapse in the Senate and House elections, which will be held along with the presidential election.
... Ukraine is already anxious about being “abandoned” by Trump and urgently needs to find another way out.
The latest polls show Harris narrowing the gap with Trump and even leading in one poll. However, according to the US electoral system, the president is not directly elected by the people. As the campaign heats up, Harris’ weaknesses will come under harsh fire. Observers generally believe that she will face a tough battle ahead.
Gaining diplomatic space at the expense of trade
Businesses and political circles around the world are still preparing for Trump 2.0. Some countries have even gone into emergency mode, rushing to China to repair bilateral relations and hedge against a chaotic future for global order.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s sudden visit to China on 23 July is the most striking example, it being the first contact between the Chinese and Ukrainian foreign ministers since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The three-hour meeting in Guangzhou did not produce any substantive results, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi intriguingly saying that the conditions and timing are “not yet ripe” for peace talks.
More notably, Kuleba’s trip took place just a few days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with Trump on the phone on 19 July. This highlights that Ukraine is already anxious about being “abandoned” by Trump and urgently needs to find another way out.
... Trump’s “America First” unilateralism and mercantilism may actually give China some diplomatic space.
For Zelenskyy, Trump’s return to the White House would probably be a nightmare for both Ukraine and himself. Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants to reduce military aid to Ukraine, and has even claimed that he can end the war within 24 hours.
Moreover, Zelenskyy and Trump have some personal grievances — five years ago, Zelenskyy refused Trump’s request to assist in investigating Biden’s son in his role as a director of a Ukrainian natural gas company.
Ukraine aside, Canada also sent Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly to China last week to repair bilateral relations in the wake of the Meng Wanzhou incident, the first visit by a Canadian foreign minister to China in seven years. China’s attitude was said to be positive, but Wang Yi also called for “serious reflection” on Canada’s part.
These two international diplomatic developments hint at China’s preference for Trump to be elected over Biden. Although Trump has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on China, and his running mate JD Vance has said that he does not like China and considers China to be the biggest threat to the US, Trump’s “America First” unilateralism and mercantilism may actually give China some diplomatic space.
... Beijing will not have an easy time either. In the event of Trump 2.0, economic and trade hostility towards China will definitely be ramped up.
Mainland Chinese netizens would be satisfied to see Trump demand that Taiwan pay “protection fees” and accuse Taiwan of taking away “almost 100%” of the US’s chip business, and to see the Taiwan stock market plummet by 714.5 billion NTD (US$21.8 billion) in one day. No wonder the nickname “Chuan Jianguo” (川建国, Trump who builds our nation) is once again the top Weibo search term in mainland China, while Taiwan suffers in silence.
However, Beijing will not have an easy time either. In the event of Trump 2.0, economic and trade hostility towards China will definitely be ramped up.
Even if high tariffs of up to 60% cannot be implemented on Chinese goods, the mutual imposition of other tariffs between China and the US will ignite a new round of trade wars and accelerate the decoupling of China-US economic and trade relations. Economist Stephen Roach has described Trump’s additional tariffs as the “functional equivalent of the nuclear option” in international economic conflict.
Opportunities for China’s role globally
In that event, the global industrial chain and supply chain will be forced to reorganise again, affecting not only these two countries but almost all economies worldwide. Some may even have to choose between dispersing and shifting their industrial chains.
With the prospect of Trump taking office, some Chinese tech executives privately revealed that American clients have already warned that if they do not move their industrial chains out of China, they may not be able to work together next year.
... if domestic economic development does not meet expectations, it can all also be justifiably blamed on the outside world. This is also not a good thing for China.
Moreover, in the era of Trump 2.0, sanctions may not be limited to tech products, which will add to the woes of China’s already pressured economy. Countries with deep economic and trade relations with China are also on edge, preparing to face an uncertain future.
More intense economic suppression by the US may also prompt China to focus more on security and tighten controls in many areas; if domestic economic development does not meet expectations, it can all also be justifiably blamed on the outside world. This is also not a good thing for China.
If Trump returns to the White House, his unpredictable style will inevitably stir up international geopolitical situations and lead to significant fluctuations in financial, currency and commodity markets.
However, in the gloomy international environment, China will also have new opportunities to play a stabilising role and mend its relations with the Western world. For example, Ukraine’s foreign minister has visited China about a significant issue, namely the war in Ukraine — is China ready to play a greater role in mediating a ceasefire?
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “如果特朗普再次上台”.
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