Taiwan and Japan’s contrasting reactions to Chinese military drills
Honda Mami, a Japanese studying in Taiwan, looks into why the recent military exercise by China near Taiwan has left the Taiwan people unfazed, but has Japan in a frenzy.
On 20 May, Lai Ching-te was sworn in as the 16th president of the Republic of China (ROC), and a line in his inauguration speech left a deep impression on me. On the topic of relations with China, Lai stated that both sides of the strait “are not subordinate to each other”.
Three days later, China launched a large-scale two-day military exercise around Taiwan to show their dissatisfaction with Lai’s speech and as a stern warning to the officials and people in Taiwan.
‘War won’t happen!’
I noticed an interesting phenomenon as the events developed; the people of Taiwan were not at all concerned about the military exercise and carried on with their lives as normal. Yet, people in Japan were visibly distraught, with extensive media coverage focusing on the military exercise. Why was there such a huge difference?
From my observation of Taiwan’s society, the people have already gotten used to China’s military exercises, treating it as a “boy who cried wolf” phenomenon. The Taiwanese think that China’s military exercises are just a scare tactic against the ROC government, and are unlikely to escalate into actual armed conflict.
Let me use a conversation I had with some elders to illustrate this. When I broached the subject of the possibility of conflict with China in the future, I expected a serious response. Instead, they casually remarked, “I haven’t really thought about it! It’s just a drill after all.”
They added, “War won’t happen! Don’t think too much now.”
The people clearly understand that China wants to reunite with Taiwan and has never ruled out reunification by force. Moreover, in a conflict with China, the ROC — which is at an utter disadvantage — will undoubtedly lose.
Currently, the majority of the people in Taiwan share a similar viewpoint and are indifferent to the military exercises.
Government influence on public opinion
Besides being used to these military exercises, I believe there is another hidden factor contributing to the public’s indifference — they are unwilling to face the situation.
The people clearly understand that China wants to reunite with Taiwan and has never ruled out reunification by force. Moreover, in a conflict with China, the ROC — which is at an utter disadvantage — will undoubtedly lose.
Despite this reality being widely understood, many are unwilling to face the reality. Instead, they tell themselves to “not think too much”, deliberately ignoring the military exercises and their implications.
Interestingly, the Japanese public had a much more intense reaction to the military exercises than the Taiwanese public. The Japanese media were quick to report about the Chinese military exercises, and the people also felt rather uneasy about it. You might question, why are the Japanese so concerned about this?
The reason lies in the workings of Japan’s domestic politics. Since the Shinzo Abe administration, the Japanese government has advocated that “if Taiwan is in trouble, Japan would be in trouble”. This means that if China were to reunite Taiwan by force, it would destabilise the region and have significant repercussions for Japan.
... the people of Japan have been influenced by the government and lost their neutrality when it comes to the cross-strait issue, harbouring feelings of animosity towards China.
In recent years, the Japanese government has also tried to create a sense of aversion and distrust towards China domestically, significantly boosting the defence budget with the support of the people. This has led Japan further down the path of militarisation while also cultivating an atmosphere of unilateral support for Taiwan.
Hence, the people of Japan have been influenced by the government and lost their neutrality when it comes to the cross-strait issue, harbouring feelings of animosity towards China. And so, the public and the media have exhibited even more intense reactions towards the military exercises than the Taiwanese themselves.
Problematic attitudes
I feel that the attitude in both Taiwan and Japan towards the military exercises is problematic. The ROC government should take these exercises seriously, reflect on why China took such actions, and consider how to prevent similar situations in the future. The people should also be actively concerned about the cross-strait issue, and not have an avoidant mentality and believe that conflict is unlikely.
Meanwhile, the Japanese public should reconsider the rationality of what their government is espousing. If Taiwan is reunified with China, would Japan really be in trouble? Would Japan’s survival be affected? I believe that if people take a step back and think calmly, it is not hard to conclude that things are in fact not as bad as the politicians make them to be.
Japan should refrain from favouring Taiwan unilaterally and demonising China. It should instead observe things from the perspective of a neutral third party, and call on both sides of the strait to maintain peaceful relations.
I firmly believe that stability in Northeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region depends on Taiwan addressing the cross-strait issue directly and Japan maintaining a calm and objective approach.
