Why Japan and China have totally different ideas of their foreign ministers' meeting

On 18 May 2022, the foreign ministers of Japan and China had a 70-minute video conference. The meeting, their first since October 2021, was precipitated by Japan's need to communicate with China in advance of President Biden's visit to Japan for the Quad summit.

Furthermore, it was deemed necessary to level the playing field at the foreign minister level to enable action to be taken at the prime ministerial level following the upper house election due to be held in July. Recent strong antipathy in Japan towards China and South Korea has made it seem almost impossible to have a summit with the leaders of either country.

This situation resulted in a diplomatic discussion that was devoid of substance and detail. Furthermore, despite the fact that Japan and China will mark the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of diplomatic relations at the end of September 2022, the readout of the meeting released by the Japanese foreign ministry makes no mention of this milestone. It would appear that the Japanese side avoided stating that the government was making preparations to mark the 50th anniversary.

According to Japan's official account of the meeting, the two foreign ministers agreed on the need to work together to realise the important shared vision for a "constructive and stable relationship" reached during the Japan-China Summit teleconference in October 2021.

However, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi stated that "Japan-China relations are facing various difficulties, and public opinion in Japan toward China is extremely severe". This could be interpreted as the Kishidia administration's justification for adopting a tough policy against China.

In addition, Hayashi expressed "serious concern over the situations in the East China Sea, including the situation surrounding the Senkaku Islands, as well as the South China Sea, Hong Kong, and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region", and stated "the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait".

Hayashi's pronouncement on China's pro-Russian stance on the situation in Ukraine, calling on China to "play a responsible role to maintain international peace and security, noting that Russia's aggression against Ukraine constitutes a clear violation of international law, including the United Nations Charter" can also be taken as critical of China.

These statements are based on concerns that the Kishida administration in Japan is not taking a tough stance toward China. Conversely, the administration may also be said to be adopting a "resolute" stance before the election.

In terms of the economy, the report released by the Japanese side said that both ministers "confirmed [that they would] promote dialogue and cooperation related to Japan-China economic relations in a variety of areas and at a variety of levels in an appropriate manner", and "stressed the importance of pushing forward the people-to-people and economic exchanges between the two countries through [the] efforts of both sides". This suggests that, even in the midst of tense Japan-China relations, the economy may provide some leeway.

However, the interpretation of the meeting according to the Chinese foreign ministry is different from that reported by Japan.

First, according to the Chinese side, Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of diplomatic relations between China and Japan "is an important milestone in the history of bilateral relations" and that he hoped the 50th anniversary would be taken as an opportunity to consolidate the "constructive and stable relationship" and to safeguard "the hard-won friendly situation jointly fostered by the predecessors [and people of the two countries]".

The perspective of the Chinese side can be taken to mean that despite ongoing tensions between Japan and China, the two countries still maintain a "friendly situation". This is also evident, for example, from Xi Jinping's teleconference with Kishida soon after the Kishida administration was formed.

Next, Wang said that Japan and China should collaborate positively to prepare for the 50th anniversary commemorative events, strengthening exchanges and cooperation in various fields, and fostering positive public opinion and an optimistic social climate, based on the foundation of Japan-China relations established in the four political documents between the two countries.

Wang also stated that Japan and China should use economic and trade cooperation, a key driver of bilateral relations, to strengthen cooperation in areas such as "the digital economy, green and low-carbon economy, and climate governance".

In addition, the Chinese side referred to the elimination of destabilising factors in Japan-China relations, such as Japan's negative moves on the Taiwan issue and other issues affecting China's core interests, to safeguard the strides made in their 50 years of relations.

The announcements clearly deviate enormously in content, with the Chinese side focusing primarily on the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and the Japanese side making no mention of this event.

Based on this alone, it would appear that the Chinese side is becoming more proactive in terms of developing and advancing relations with Japan. However, the People's Liberation Army has been extremely active around the Senkaku Islands and in other areas around Japan. And with Japan's criticism of China's stance on the Ukraine issue, it is in fact taking a tougher stance on China, and scrutinising China more closely than ever before.

The Kishida administration will not take further action against China until after the elections. But neither can he and his government proactively promote any 50th anniversary commemorative events, given domestic public opinion toward China.

If the Chinese side wishes to use the occasion of the 50th anniversary at the end of September to improve Japan-China relations, China needs to persevere with consultations and negotiations at the working level with Japan, in order to act swiftly after the July election.

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