Eight months after national security law: What's become of Hong Kong?

On 21 February last year, the anti-extradition bill protests in Hong Kong had not yet subsided. At noon on that day, a group of demonstrators clashed with pro-government supporters at Times Square in Causeway Bay, and a middle-aged pro-establishment supporter who was there to film the proceedings ended up on the ground with a bloody face.

This person was 56-year-old special education teacher Ada Lam Suet Po, nicknamed Sister Justice (正义姐) by the pro-Beijing media for her clear stand against independence for Hong Kong. Thinking back recently on her experience last year, Lam still feels the lingering effects - she still bears marks and scars on the back and left side of her head as well as the corner of her left eye, and sometimes wakes up in the middle of the night with images of being surrounded and beaten by protestors.

In early June 2019, the Hong Kong SAR government proposed amending the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance to allow the extradition of offenders, triggering Hong Kongers to take to the streets in waves of demonstrations, with some of them black-clad, barricading the streets and starting fires. The pro-government Lam, who has spoken out prominently in support of the police, sometimes felt personally threatened.

But what Lam remembers most is not getting beaten up at Times Square, but what happened on 3 October 2019, when she participated in a press conference where pro-establishment persons including Legislative Council (LegCo) members announced the formation of a group to promote an "anti-mask law" banning the wearing of facial coverings at public gatherings.

During her interview with Lianhe Zaobao, Lam recalled that the press conference was supposed to have been held at a hotel in Wanchai, but at 10am that day, the hotel notified the organisers that the venue booking was cancelled. She said, "At the time, the situation was very tense. Even the police would get beaten up by demonstrators when they went out. The hotel was worried about offending the anti-extradition people and having the 'people in black' coming after them, so they did not dare to let the place to us."

The press conference had to be shifted to a room in the LegCo in the afternoon. Lam took a cab alone from her home to the Central Government Complex, while the anxious organiser kept calling to ask where she was and whether she would be able to make it to the venue. After the press conference, her personal information, as well as that of her family, was posted online, and netizens blasted them.

"Why can't we patriots speak up proudly in Hong Kong?" Lam started crying over the phone.

In view of the increasingly intense political and social conflict over the 20 years since Hong Kong's return, China's National People's Congress decided in the first half of last year to pass the Hong Kong national security law, which took effect on the night of 30 June.

Nearly eight months on, Lam feels that there has been an enormous change in the general climate in Hong Kong, where the "black storm" has been successfully quelled. She said, "The national security law has been a strong deterrent. Many 'black campers' dare not come out. The voices of patriots and those who love Hong Kong can finally be heard!"

According to figures released by the Hong Kong Police Force in early February, the number of cases last year related to the anti-extradition protests such as arson, criminal damage, rioting, and illegal assembly fell by 25%, showing an easing of violence and illegal activity due to the anti-extradition incidents.

Late last year, the pro-Beijing, pro-establishment Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) conducted a telephone survey of over 1,000 citizens aged 18 and above, and found that over 70% of respondents felt the national security law had helped to reduce violence and restore order.

The bottom line is, order has been quickly restored in Hong Kong after the implementation of the national security law, which has a lot to do with the police arresting many prominent pro-democracy figures under the law. Figures show that since the national security law was rolled out in late June 2020, the police have arrested 97 people, with four cases involving over HK$65 million (S$11.12 million) in frozen assets. Eight people have been prosecuted, including Next Digital founder Jimmy Lai.

When the news broke in the first half of last year that Beijing had decided to enact the Hong Kong national security law, a meme spread online: a set of 54 poker cards showing the head shots of Hong Kong pro-democracy figures behind bars, complete with names and charges. People speculated that these figures were targets of arrest.

Six months on, 31 out of those 54 people have been prosecuted; six are fugitives. The two Jokers in the pack - Jimmy Lai and politician/barrister Martin Lee - are awaiting trial on various charges.

The other 23 people have not been charged, but they have been keeping a low profile. At least two have quietly left Hong Kong - Joseph Cheng Yu-shek, the convenor of pro-democratic groups including Power for Democracy, has gone to Australia, while academic Simon Shen, alleged to be a strategist for the pan-democratic camp, is in Taiwan.

According to the pro-democracy camp, alarm bells have been ringing since the start of this year, when the police arrested 55 pro-democracy activists who organised and participated in an unofficial pan-democratic primary election last year, accusing them of subverting state power under the national security law. They believe that anyone could be at risk of being arrested and charged under the current political climate. Some pan-democratic people have fled overseas. Others, worried that their assets might be audited or frozen, have sold off their possessions cheaply for cash to pave a way out for themselves and their families, or to get out of Hong Kong.

Former LegCo member Au Nok-hin, who was a planner of the primary, is a classic example. He was arrested for participating in the primary, and was also involved in three other cases, including an appeal following a conviction of assaulting police, allegedly violating the Legislative Council (Powers and Privileges) Ordinance, and allegedly organising and participating in the rally at Victoria Park on 18 August 2019.

A while ago, Au sold his residence of over ten years below market price. He lamented that he has been living in fear since he was first arrested in late August 2019. "Every day, I'm scared that the police will come knocking again. I have no idea how much worse my life could get," he said. Mentally exhausted by a series of lawsuits, Au finally pleaded guilty to his involvement in an illegal assembly on 18 August 2019. "I'm constantly bombarded by lawsuits. Since the court is unable to uphold my rights, where do I find the energy to continue defending myself at court?"

Au said that he speaks cautiously at interviews now: "I don't dare to write articles anymore. Because under the current circumstances, saying a sentence more means an added risk of danger." Now, Facebook is his everything. "I can't even take care of myself, I really don't have the means to care about the place I live in now." He added that he was not able to face his parents as he had failed as a son. The lawsuits have also affected his livelihood.

Au said that as a "politically sensitive individual", it has been difficult for him to find a job. For example, early last year, a tertiary education institution initially hired him as a lecturer. The contract was signed, and a staff email address was already assigned to him, but this offer was suddenly rescinded just before the start of the school term. Following his multiple arrests, Au has had three mobile phones confiscated from him and he has been borrowing old phones from his friends. Now, he is not even sure that he can safeguard his personal wealth.

While the implementation of the Hong Kong national security law has helped to deter violent demonstrations, it has also made Hong Kongers question Hong Kong's legal system. According to a survey conducted by Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI), 59% of respondents felt it unreasonable for the numerous people accused of violating the national security law not to be released on bail. Only 32% of respondents felt it was reasonable.

"We Hongkongers" initiative honorary director Leung Kai Chi analysed that the survey results show that society is questioning the legal system under the Hong Kong national security law. In the past, Hong Kongers thought that once one was charged and arrested, one would have to face due legal process. Now, one could be thrown into jail before trial not knowing how long one would be locked up for.

The final poll released late last year by PORI studied, among other aspects, people's support for the chief executive and their level of happiness in the past year. Nearly 60% of respondents admitted that they were unhappy over the past year with a net happiness value of negative 45 percentage points, setting a new low since the survey started in 1992.

PORI deputy CEO Chung Kim-wah thinks that the Carrie Lam administration did not pay attention to public opinion over the past year. For example, in the early stages of the pandemic, the Hong Kong people wanted the authorities to close the borders, but the authorities had opposing views. After the implementation of the Hong Kong national security law, Hong Kongers also felt that the "one country, two systems" principle was dead and there was no light at the end of the tunnel. This made them unhappy with their lives.

Actually, even after the implementation of the security law, deep-seated contradictions in Hong Kong society remain. Coupled with a series of social and political incidents, the inadequacies of the government's governance capabilities have been further highlighted. Once again, the people are worried about Hong Kong's prospects, and a new wave of emigration out of Hong Kong has also emerged.

Between 8 and 13 December 2020, Youth I.D.E.A.S., a youth think tank established by The Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups' Youth Research Centre, interviewed 525 Hong Kong youths. The survey revealed that 29% of youths would consider emigrating overseas. Their top three reasons were "the enactment of the National Security Law in Hong Kong (50.7%), the disappointing performance of the SAR Government (49.3%), and the serious rift of the city (31.3%)".

Besides Europe and the US, Taiwan is another location that many Hong Kongers are choosing to migrate to. Quoting newly released figures from Taiwan's Immigration Agency, a Bloomberg article reported that "more than 10,800 Hong Kongers received local resident permits in 2020", nearly double the number in 2019, and a new high in 30 years following the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.

Jason Yu Wai-lung, chief immigration consultant at immigration platform Smart2Go, pointed out that since the national security law was implemented, Hong Kongers' migration needs have greatly increased. When Taiwan's new policy for Hong Kong immigrants was introduced last year, the company received roughly 30 inquiries each day. Many of the Hong Kongers hoping to migrate cited their concerns about the national security law as a key push factor.

Much more worrying is the fact that while order seems to have been gradually restored and everything seems calm after the implementation of the security law, the reality is that there are strong undercurrents beneath the surface. The resentment towards the government that many Hong Kongers are still feeling may explode at any moment.

On 8 February, the Organised Crime and Triad Bureau of the Hong Kong Police Force arrested two people suspected of conspiring to manufacture explosives for use and seized 23.5kg of explosive substances, remote controls, stun guns, bows and arrows, and other weapons, as well as placards with political slogans for "Hong Kong independence". With this arrest, the police foiled a potential bomb attack on a crowded flower market during Chinese New Year's Eve.

Sources revealed that these explosive substances could have been kept and collected from past violent demonstrations and that the raw materials could have been stolen during the occupation of university laboratories. The police are investigating the source of these materials and if the suspects intend to use them in violent demonstrations, or even against specific targets.

Dr Louis Chen, secretary-general of the Hong Kong Legal Exchange Foundation, told Lianhe Zaobao in an interview that the Hong Kong national security law has indeed closed some loopholes in Hong Kong's security laws. Over the past eight months, the biggest change in Hong Kong is that social order has been restored, and street violence and social movements have temporarily stopped.

But Dr Chen also emphasised that the Hong Kong national security law will not solve all of Hong Kong's problems - the government's old ways of thinking and society's mindset must be changed and concrete actions must be taken before the people's support can be gained.

Dr Chen believes that Hong Kong's government officials should take the lead in serving the people and understanding their lives so as to improve trust and alleviate resentment. Knowing the community's mindset and worries would also help in formulating policies that address the root cause of various problems.

He said, "For example, in the past, district officers used to play the role of understanding public opinion in the community. Now, they give the impression that they are just doing so for the sake of the election. In the future, maybe we can consider giving more importance to the role of district officers in collecting public opinion and alleviating public grievances?"

Apart from the above, Dr Chen thinks that the authorities could also provide channels for the people to voice their grievances, such as setting up a "resident's mailbox" that would allow the public to directly offer criticisms or suggestions, thereby improving the understanding between officials and Hong Kong's people. "In fact, the development of digital government systems around the world is already very mature and is not hard to achieve technically. The crux of the issue lies in whether officials are able to better utilise technology to improve the standard of government services," he said.

Editor's Note:

As of 2 March 2021, 47 pan-democratic activists have been charged with "subversion" under the Hong Kong national security law. The US and UK governments are giving their attention to the arrests, and have called on the Hong Kong government to release those arrested.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted: "We condemn the detention of and charges filed against pan-democratic candidates in Hong Kong's elections and call for their immediate release. Political participation and freedom of expression should not be crimes. The U.S. stands with the people of Hong Kong."

UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab also tweeted: "The decision to charge 47 Hong Kong politicians & activists for subversion under the NSL is deeply disturbing. It shows in the starkest terms the NSL being used to eliminate political dissent rather than restore order - contrary to what the Chinese Government promised."

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