Bleak prospects for international cooperation to address Houthi Red Sea attacks

As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens, the prospect of a conflict in Lebanon looms over a lasting peace. Meanwhile, a new threat has emerged - what began as the Houthis (a Zaydi Shiite movement in Yemen) targeting Israeli-owned ships in the Red Sea has escalated to a broader marauding activity on any vessel passing through the Bab al-Mandab strait.

The strait is part of one of the globe's most vital sea passages, linking the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean, hosting a relentless stream of millions of oil barrels daily, comprising 9% of all seaborne petroleum and 12% of global trade.

While the Houthis claimed that commercial vessels' hijackings were in support of the Palestinian cause, the US launched an international call to deploy a naval task force to counter the militia's assaults on global shipping in the Red Sea.

As a militant faction in Yemen within the "axis of resistance" supported by Iran, the Houthis have aligned with the Palestinians in Gaza. However, there's a deeper layer beyond what initially meets the eye.

Since the onset of the Yemeni conflict in 2015, the Houthi forces have been discounted as a rag-tag militia. However, their utilisation of weaponised drones and ballistic missiles targeting commercial vessels along Yemen's coast tells a different story. It showcases a military prowess that adeptly wields Iranian-developed armed aerial and naval drones, standing against a coalition army backed by the wealthy Gulf countries of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Neglecting enduring conflicts such as the one in Yemen carries its own risks, and the Houthis asserting their role in the standoff with Israel, even from a distance, comes as part of that cost. For the first time in many years, Yemen is witnessing an enduring ceasefire due to a UN-led effort. Despite Saudi Arabia's efforts to negotiate with the Houthis to resolve the conflict, the Houthis' recent escalation against Israel is gaining significant local support and sympathy.

In this respect, the outcome of the US call to arms to defend a crucial sea lane of communication has brought about a very different result since the launch of the Combined Task Force 151 to disrupt piracy attacks in the Gulf of Aden and off the eastern coast of Somalia.

According to the World Bank's estimate, from 2005 to 2012, more than US$400 million was claimed in ransom for pirate acts and the overall costs on the global economy surpassed US$18 billion a year. In this regard, the recent assaults by the Houthis are swiftly driving up insurance premiums for commercial vessels.

Already, oil tankers are compelled to opt for longer routes via South Africa's Cape of Good Hope, circumventing the Suez Canal and the choke points along the Gulf of Aden. These alterations result in escalated costs and delays, and have already culminated in a 1.2% surge in oil prices.

Despite the economic stakes involved, other Arab nations along the Red Sea, except Bahrain where the US Fifth Fleet is headquartered, have abstained from participating in the initiative. The prevailing animosity toward America's backing of Israel's actions in Gaza outweighs any perceived economic benefits.

Therefore, it is possible to infer that this dynamic will embolden the Houthis to launch even bolder attacks. Iran condemned any naval coalition participation as complicity in Israel's actions, denying at the same time any involvement in the attacks by the Houthis on Israel or Red Sea shipping.

While the Houthis are adamant that the "military operations are against ships linked to the Zionist entity'', as stated by their spokesperson, the mayhem caused in the Red Sea is already triggering a maritime crisis with repercussions that extend beyond the region. Despite China's staunch support for the Palestinian cause and its close ties with Iran, the indiscriminate assaults on vessels navigating through the zone threatened by the Houthis are significantly harming China's economy.

For instance, China's energy security relies on more than 40% of its resources from the Middle East. Therefore, some Chinese shipping companies have suspended their shipments across the Red Sea while others are considering enhancing their commercial vessels with private security firms (PSCs) equipped to counter drones.

In this regard, Chinese PSCs are rushing to provide drone-jamming solutions. Instead of physically shooting a drone out of the sky, they plan to utilise a device that disrupts the communication frequency used by a drone to connect with its ground station. Essentially it overrides the drone's communication systems forcing an automatic return to the base or just falling to the ground.

Though plausible, the decision to rely on PSCs and their solutions comes with increased costs. But at Zhongnanhai, opting for a different approach might be better than engaging in Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW), such as China's past participation in anti-piracy missions in the Red Sea. Relying on a limited and passive security presence through the PSC would not draw China into complex geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Combined Task Force 151 once boasted 20 countries, spanning from Turkey to South Korea, alongside independent deployments from Russia and China. Today's coalition of ten nations reveals the transformation in the global security landscape over the past decade.

The earlier vacuum in maritime security, originating from anarchy along the Somali coast, was met with an effective multinational response, showcasing even a degree of coordination between China and the US. However, with the current tensions in the Indo-Pacific between Beijing and Washington, compounded by the polarisation of the Gaza conflict, prospects for successful multinational cooperation in addressing the ongoing maritime crisis seem bleak.

Related: Israel-Hamas war testing credibility of China's Middle East strategy | Impact of Gaza crisis on China's interests in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific