Anies Baswedan: Indonesia's potential president adept at identity politics

With just over a year to go before Indonesia's presidential election, public polls on potential candidates are already making their rounds, with three standouts: Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, and outgoing Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan.

Among them, the most noteworthy is Anies, who is not affiliated to any party or group but is supported by both conservative and radical Muslims.

One might say that Anies is like an ambitious roly-poly toy in Indonesia's political scene - during his time as the education and culture minister in Joko Widodo (Jokowi)'s cabinet, he was already considered presidential material.

Anies was born in 1969 in Kuningan, West Java, and grew up in Yogyakarta. His ethnic Arab father and Sudanese mother taught at Universitas Gadjah Mada, which was also his alma mater. Anies also studied in Japan, and later received his doctorate in political science from Northern Illinois University in the US.

In the 1990s, during his studies in Gadjah Mada, Anies, an eloquent speaker, became the student senate chairman and participated in demonstrations. He became a researcher after returning from studying overseas. And as an open-minded moderate Muslim intellectual, he advocated for religious and cultural diversity.

In 2007, at the age of just 38, he was appointed rector of Paramadina University, a private Muslim university in Jakarta, becoming the youngest university head in Indonesia. During his term, he implemented reforms within the university, while also being active outside - he initiated the Indonesia Mengajar (Indonesia Teaches) movement, to raise the educational standards and address the shortage of teachers in regions with poor teaching resources.

Politics is close to Anies' heart, and he was previously part of an anti-corruption committee. In mid-2013, he attended a session for presidential candidates held by the Partai Demokrat under former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, which sparked his interest in becoming president. However, instead of running in the 2014 presidential elections, he joined Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla's campaign, in strong opposition against Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa.

In the final moments of the election, when Prabowo's team slandered Jokowi as a pagan, Anies staunchly defended Jokowi. He hit out strongly against Prabowo's autocratic ways, warning voters that Prabowo's election would spell disaster for Indonesia.

Jokowi narrowly won the 2014 presidential election, and Anies was appointed education and culture minister. He was an active political figure, driving reform and making frequent trips overseas.

There were two views of Anies during his time as minister: Jokowi's supporters believed that Anies was irresponsible, allegedly corrupt and constantly stirring politics, with aspirations to run in the 2019 presidential election. Meanwhile, those against Jokowi believed that Anies was highly capable and would accomplish great things.

After two years as education and culture minister, Anies was removed during a cabinet reshuffle. He began to align with the opposition and became their candidate as they valued Anies' eloquence, and ethnic and religious background. In 2017, Anies accepted the invitation by his former political opponent Prabowo and ran for Jakarta governor, against Jokowi's comrade Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, better known as Ahok.

With Prabowo's support, Anies and Sandiaga Uno faced Ahok, who was the incumbent Jakarta governor with excellent governance records and popular support, and his deputy Djarot Saiful Hidayat. Ahok would have been re-elected through those merits alone, but as an ethnic Chinese and Christian, he was a "double minority" in Indonesian politics. Despite being capable and dynamic, Ahok lacked political sensitivity; his election speeches were manipulated by his political opponents to accuse him of insulting Islam.

Anies long knew the importance of identity politics for local or national elections. In order to win, he entered into an alliance with fellow ethnic Arab and radical Muslim leader Rizieq Shihab.

As the leader of the Islamic Defenders Front (Front Pembela Islam, FPI), Rizieq worked with anti-government groups and political parties, and leveraged the claim of Ahok's "blasphemy" against Islam. On 2 December 2016, with Anies's support, Rizieq initiated a large demonstration of over a million people to "defend Islam" and "oppose Ahok".

These conservative and radical Muslims controlled countless mosques and ulamas (Muslim scholars) in the Indonesian capital, and even included anti-Ahok lines in their prayers, going so far as to say that Muslims who supported Ahok were not allowed to enter mosques. Ahok's deputy Djarot was ejected from a mosque by the radical Muslims, and even an elderly Muslim supporter of Ahok on her deathbed was not allowed to have an imam praying beside her.

Under the fear of the "white terror", many moderate Muslim voters started to shrink back. At this point, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono also came forward to run for Jakarta's governorship.

In the first round of the three-way contest, Ahok won 43% of the vote, Anies 40% and Agus 17%. But because Ahok did not gain more than 50% of the total votes, a second round of voting was held. This time, Ahok's votes fell one percentage point to 42%, while Anies gained all the votes that went to Agus in the first round and won by 58%. One might say this was the peak of identity politics in Indonesia.

This is when Anies might have let victory go to his head. At his inauguration as governor, his speech promoted "indigenous" and anti-Chinese sentiments. He said, "Jakarta is one of a few places in Indonesia that for centuries felt the everyday consequences of the colonial presence. We, the pribumi (indigenous people), have been oppressed and defeated by colonialism. Today we are free, and it is time for us to become the masters of our own country."

Using a Madurese proverb, he cautioned against turning Jakarta into a place where "the duck lays the eggs, but the hen sits on them" again, and added that "we pribumi have worked hard to get rid of colonialism and gained independence, and we must enjoy our fruit of independence".

While Anies is of Arab descent, he calls himself a pribumi and considers the ethnic Chinese "colonialists". In fact, former Indonesian president B. J. Habibie had already issued a Presidential Instruction forbidding the use of the word pribumi by Indonesian government officials and in official documents. Anies clearly ignored the instruction - after all, it is not stated that violators would be punished.

In the early stages of Anies's term as Jakarta governor, he played the "identity politics" game and maintained close relations with conservative and radical Muslims as well as Rizieq, who later fled to Saudi Arabia due to pornography charges. Despite this, Anies continued to work with Rizieq's organisation and anti-Jokowi forces.

As Anies's boss behind the scenes, Prabowo was also an "ally" of Rizieq. Prabowo had said that if he won the 2019 presidential election, he would bring Rizieq back to Indonesia in his private plane.

But things did not go as planned. During the 2019 presidential election, Jokowi was re-elected as Indonesia's president. Jokowi later succeeded in convincing Prabowo to join his cabinet and appointed him as his defence minister.

The conservative and radical Muslims were disappointed by Prabowo and began pinning their hopes on Anies. At this point, cracks began to form in Jokowi's camp as well. When Jusuf Kalla was still Indonesia's vice president under Jokowi, he was already supporting Anies in private and opposing Ahok. Now, Kalla has dropped all pretence and publicly discredited Jokowi as "incapable".

Kalla and other anti-Jokowi politicians reportedly arranged for Rizieq's return to Indonesia in November 2020, and masses flocked to the airport when Rizieq arrived. Rizieq believed that he had become a kingmaker and was above the law, able to speak unreservedly. Many politicians, including Anies, took to pay their respects to Rizieq.

The Covid-19 pandemic was running rampant but Rizieq and his supporters ignored the movement restrictions. They misread the situation and miscalculated their own power. As a result, they were punished by the law and the FPI was dissolved.

In fact, Jokowi has strived to crack down on radical Muslims since taking office. At around 2017 and 2020, he banned two radical Muslim organisations - Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia and the FPI - significantly reducing the influence of radical Muslims in Indonesia.

Anies, who became Jakarta governor in October 2017, is set to step down in October 2022 after a five-year term. But he was already planning his next political move during the fourth year of his governorship following the decline of the radical Muslims in 2021.

Anies is well aware that radical forces' support alone will not make him Indonesia's president in 2024, he would also need the support of moderate Muslim and non-Muslim voters. He started reaching out to non-Muslims by visiting Chinese and Buddhist temples during Chinese festivities and even attended the opening ceremony of a Christian church. He also suggested that the Indonesian Chinese communities restore Jakarta's Chinatown gate, which he later inaugurated.

Most notably, in the latter half of 2021, Anies appointed Jokowi's former trade minister Tom Lembong, with the Chinese surname Wang (汪), as president commissioner of real estate developer PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, and also made Sunny Tanuwijaya, another ethnic Chinese and Ahok's close friend, its consultant. When the 2022 Jakarta E-Prix ran into funding problems, grants from several of Jakarta's Chinese plutocrats made the event possible.

Why do the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, especially the Chinese community and capitalists, want to work with Anies? The Chinese community is not a unified whole, and out of self-interest, many wealthy Chinese do not wish to offend Anies, who may become the next president of Indonesia.

In fact, Anies did not give up on radical Muslims. Many radical organisations have also recently declared that Anies is their "2024 presidential candidate". While Anies's team quickly denied such claims, Anies has remained silent on the matter, which is intriguing.

Anies's recent image is also changing. He is now portraying himself as a wise man who advocates religious and cultural diversity. While people will not forget his past actions, in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, nor are there unchanging political ways.

Those against Anies pointed out that he had neglected flood control measures and cut river management funding as governor of Jakarta. Residents have even taken Anies to court as a result, and the city government was ordered to clean up a portion of the rivers.

Not only has Anies failed to resolve the problems of flooding and traffic congestion in the capital, but he has also not built the number of cheap housing that he promised. Some political parties even accuse him of corruption and attempted bribery.

However, his supporters praise his many achievements, including the recent completion of the grand Jakarta International Stadium, which was started by his predecessor. He also successfully organised the Jakarta E-Prix and elevated Indonesia's reputation. Anies also built bicycle lanes in Jakarta and allowed street vendors to hawk more freely on sidewalks.

Anies is adept at the political game. In Indonesia where identity politics is still important, individuals such as Anies are standing tall. However, whether he will be elected as Indonesia's president in 2024, nobody knows the answer.

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