Qin Gang's dismissal: Reflections on the Chinese system

Former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who was not seen for a month, was officially dismissed from his position on 25 July.

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress convened and decided to remove Qin as foreign minister, re-appointing 70-year-old Wang Yi to the post he had vacated seven months ago to assume the higher position of a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

With Chinese diplomacy packed with activities, Wang attended the 13th Meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers and High Representatives on National Security in South Africa on 25 July, and was in Turkey by the next day.

While Wang is filling in as foreign minister, what exactly happened to Qin? Is he under investigation? Are the rumours true that he had relations with a female anchor and fathered a child in the US, or is it something more serious?

The authorities remain tight-lipped, leaving these doubts and mysteries lingering in the minds of the Chinese public and international diplomats with no answers, once again highlighting the opaqueness of China's political system.

The Chinese foreign ministry website has completely removed any information related to Qin as of 26 July. A search for "Qin Gang" yields a reply: "Sorry! No results for 'Qin Gang' found." The foreign minister's events page is also blank, with no information on Qin or news of Wang taking office.

To those outside of China, this purging of information seems illogical and puzzling. Did Qin never serve as foreign minister? But going by China's norms and logic, this odd approach silently and clearly confirms that Qin is indeed involved in serious issues and was not dismissed for health reasons. In China, information on officials are completely erased only if they fall from grace due to disciplinary violations.

Qin remains a state councilor, but perhaps not for long - the final decision could be pending ongoing investigations. The authorities' next step may be to announce that he is under investigation for disciplinary violations.

Oddly enough, despite the majority of comments on Weibo calling for people not to believe or spread rumours about Qin's dismissal as foreign minister, the Weibo account of the overseas female anchor rumoured to be involved with Qin remains active, including photos of her holding a baby in an aircraft cabin as she departs from the US. Judging by the comments on posts and video streams, the protagonists of the scandal are becoming apparent, and it seems that the authorities are not entirely quelling the rumours.

When I spoke with academics and business people, most speculate that the rumours are likely to be true, otherwise the authorities and individuals involved would have promptly refuted the rumours and clarified the situation. And since those on top have initiated an investigation, it has to be done thoroughly - including determining whether the scandal involves national security - which takes time.

With rumours abound, the authorities may need more solid evidence before deciding how to handle the matter, and to what extent.

Looking back at the Chinese officials who were sacked due to extramarital affairs, National Bureau of Statistics Director Qiu Xiaohua comes to mind. He was removed from office in 2006, and the official reason given was due to "taking a large sum of bribes from enterprises, living a decadent life and committing bigamy".

At the time, it was speculated that Qiu had an extramarital affair and an illegitimate child with a Shanghai reporter, who he met through a businessman. He had later accepted a property from the businessman. In January this year, Chinese media reported on these details, which are believed to be true.

Qiu's bribery was not deemed as too serious and he was given a one-year sentence. After his release, he became the chief economist of an investment bank and remains active in economic circles.

Qiu set a precedent for the punishment of Chinese officials due to "lifestyle issues" such as having illegitimate children; he had few other problems. However, if the illegitimate child was born in the US, would that have posed a more serious problem? Especially if the female had made the child relatively public. There are no precedents for this.

Fifty-seven-year-old Qin was promoted to foreign minister from Chinese ambassador to the US in December last year. In March this year, he was appointed as state councilor. He is China's youngest foreign minister since reform and opening up, and set a record for the fastest promotion from ministerial level to deputy state level since reform and opening up, becoming the youngest deputy state-level official in China at the time.

Qin's meteoric rise and sudden fall is an unexpected occurrence among the roughly 30 people who hold the highest power in China.

If this was not a sudden case, for instance, if Qin Gang was found to have problems after the Organisation Department had completed its checks, then the quality of decision-making in selecting and appointing talents would be in question; there could be serious negligence and room for improvement in the higher-ups' process of conducting background checks on potential talents.

It also raises concerns about the quality of China's decision-making in other areas, such as the economy, and whether the weighting of different factors when considering issues also needs to be rethought.

However, it would be an overestimation of Qin to say that his fall from grace was due to political struggle or line struggle. After the CCP's 20th Party Congress or even prior to the congress, power at the top level had already been centralised in various aspects including the economy, military and security; there was no other challenging force.

Besides, the foreign policy direction is a matter of paramount importance that is decided by the top leader of any country. While the foreign minister's style may affect how the outside world views the country, it is unlikely to challenge the country's diplomatic line, nor will it fundamentally change it.

While Qin's nickname of China's "wolf-warrior" has negative connotations in Western countries, some Chinese people view it positively. A day before Qin was removed from office, some netizens were still praising him for his resolute and powerful diplomatic speeches that had hit back at foreign media again and again. They applauded him for safeguarding the country's dignity like a true pillar of the country.

These "Qin Gang fans" could never have imagined that Qin would be dismissed from office the next day, and that his profile would be swiftly erased from the foreign ministry website. What irony!

The authorities allowed the rumours to fly for nearly a month, neither clarifying nor explaining them. Perhaps the authorities do not care, but the withholding of all information would ultimately tarnish the official image, and the public will want the truth to come out.

Indeed, China is facing a grim external situation and a sluggish economy at present. It is in need of more sunshine and transparency to inject confidence into society.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as "秦刚被免职留下未解疑团".

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