How ‘Trump shockwave’ will rattle US-China ties

Former US President Donald Trump is set to return to the White House, and Chinese academics generally believe that China-US relations will worsen, with some predicting turbulent times ahead.

Trump, who represented the Republican Party, has not only won the election but also secured Republican control over the US Congress, the Supreme Court and a majority of state governments. This will enable Trump to further push populism and conservatism domestically to new levels, and implement more extreme protectionist and isolationist policies globally. As the US’s biggest strategic rival, China is likely to face a new “Trump shockwave” as soon as next year.

Although Trump himself mentioned China less frequently during the recent election, his team as well as strategic circles in the US have long regarded China as the biggest threat to the US. In July, the Republican Party released its 2024 platform, which explicitly stated their intent to ensure the US is strategically independent of China, with specific measures which included revoking China’s most favoured nation status.

Raising tariffs could be Trump’s first move to pressure China. During his first term, Trump initiated a trade war with China. During the course of this year’s election, he once again brandished the tariff threat, and announced that if he were to return to the White House, he would impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all US imports and 60% — or even higher — on Chinese goods.

Professor Wu Xinbo of Fudan University believed that Trump will “follow through” on imposing tariffs on imported goods once in office. For Trump, imposing tariffs is not just a negotiating tool but an ardent belief. Trump saw tariffs as a beneficial and effective economic policy for the US.

Liu Weidong, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicted that Trump may exert overwhelming pressure on China at the start of his term, before going on to set conditions, adding that “Trump will assess which goods to impose a 60% tariff, and which not”.

The trade war between China and the US, which began in 2018, has already altered the trade structure between the two countries, reducing mutual dependence and accelerating decoupling. China’s share in US foreign trade dropped from 21% in 2017 to 11.6% in 2023. China’s top three trading partners, in order, have also shifted from the US, EU and ASEAN in 2017, to ASEAN, EU and the US in 2022 and 2023.

World Affairs magazine editor An Gang believed that once Trump returns to office, he could look to implement the sixth phase of tariff increases that he did not complete by the end of 2019. This could involve progressively raising the average tariff level on Chinese goods to 35%, 50% or 60%, with even higher tariffs on products like new energy vehicles. If US tariffs on China reach 60%, normal trade between the two countries would be hard; if they rise to 100%, China-US economic and trade relations could descend into chaos, with both markets taking a long time to readjust.

Even as he escalates the trade war with China, Trump’s pressure on China in the security domain is unlikely to diminish. The US’s Indo-Pacific strategy has its roots in Trump’s previous term. In 2017, the US Department of Defense introduced the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which focused on enhancing US military presence to curb China’s growing influence in the region.

On the Taiwan issue, after being elected in 2016, Trump took a congratulatory call from then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, which drew strong dissatisfaction from mainland China. With Trump re-elected, he could interact with current Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, to demonstrate a tough stance against China.

During his first term, Trump deepened US-Taiwan relations by insisting on arms sales and signing the Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020 to bolster Taiwan’s self-defence capabilities. He also pushed the boundaries of the “one China” policy by sending a cabinet-level official, the health secretary, to visit Taiwan.

Besides Trump himself, his new administration is expected to include extreme hawks like his first-term Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as well as numerous Congress members hostile to China. These people would not only push for economic decoupling from China, but also push for a step up in confrontation with China on security issues.

For these reasons, most Chinese scholars feel pessimistic about China-US relations over the next four years, anticipating significant fluctuations and potential major crises with reduced interactions both at the official and public levels.

However, a Trump presidency would not be entirely disadvantageous for China. Trump’s preference for unilateralism over multilateralism, opposition to economic globalisation, free trade, and the global climate agenda, along with his irreconcilable differences with the US establishment and US liberals among other domestic disputes could limit his ability to govern. His unilateralism could also potentially harm US relations with its allies.

Trump’s repeated claims that he would quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war upon entering the White House have already unsettled Ukraine and EU countries. The EU is concerned that Trump might force Ukraine into significant concessions to end the war, in turn undermining the efforts by the EU and the US over the past two years to support Ukraine against Russia.

Trump’s desire to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine — especially with the aim of aligning Russia against China — is unlikely to be achieved quickly, and if not handled properly, it could even alienate European and other Western countries, effectively isolating the US.

At the same time, in the recent election, Trump declined to directly comment on potential military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, but explicitly demanded Taiwan pay “protection fees”. The new Trump administration would likely continue to “play the Taiwan card” to negotiate with mainland China, but Trump is unlikely to wholly cross the line and turn the Taiwan Strait into a new hotspot for military conflict.

More importantly, despite the all-out competition with the first-term Trump administration and the Biden administration over the past few years, China’s overall national power has not declined but continually increased. Faced with such an opponent, Trump could try to exert pressure while simultaneously using his business acumen to reach deals with China on major issues.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中美关系将迎来惊涛骇浪？”.

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