China’s dilemma on the US’s arms sales to Taiwan
Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan looks at the Chinese public’s response to its official’s stance on taking “resolute countermeasures” against the US’s arms sales to Taiwan.
On 25 October, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced a US$1.988 billion sale of military equipment to Taiwan, prompting China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to assert the next evening that it would “take resolute countermeasures”. Meanwhile, online Chinese public opinion suggested intercepting US weapon shipments to Taiwan or selling arms to US rivals.
Increased sales value despite Chinese sanctions
This marks the 17th arms sale to Taiwan during the Biden administration and is also the highest valued one so far. The weapons include three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) medium-range air defence solutions; Sentinel radar systems; 123 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles-Extended Range; two missile guidance sections; and four Multifunctional Information Distribution Systems.
The DSCA stated that supporting Taiwan in maintaining a credible defensive capability serves US national interests and assists in maintaining political stability, military balance and economic progress in the Taiwan Strait region.
The Chinese foreign ministry maintained its stance and rebuked that the US’s sales “seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and security interests, harm China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and send a gravely wrong message to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces”.
It added, “China strongly condemns and firmly opposes this and has lodged serious protests with the US.”
However, these sanctions have failed to prevent the US from continuing to sell weapons to Taiwan; in fact, the value of the arms sales has increased, and the capabilities of the weapons have become more advanced.
As for the “resolute countermeasures” that China could take in response to the US’s arms sales to Taiwan, imposing sanctions on relevant US companies and their executives is the most likely option.
Since the beginning of the year, China has announced sanctions against over 30 US defence companies and their executives over arms sales to Taiwan, including BAE Systems Land and Armaments, Alliant Techsystems Operations, Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, Raytheon/Lockheed Martin Javelin Joint Venture, Raytheon Missiles & Defense, General Dynamics Information Technology, Sierra Nevada Corporation, and Stick Rudder Enterprises.
However, these sanctions have failed to prevent the US from continuing to sell weapons to Taiwan; in fact, the value of the arms sales has increased, and the capabilities of the weapons have become more advanced.
Public opinion: Laws for deterrence
Some online public opinions in China are urging the government to adopt more severe measures to prevent the escalation of US arms sales to Taiwan, even if it means completely severing ties with the US.
WeChat account Cyberspace Strategy Think Tank (CSTT, 秦安战略) published an article on Toutiao asserting that the US arms sales to Taiwan is a “monumental event” and poses a potentially fatal threat to cross-strait reunification. It urged China to initiate lawful maritime and air interception operations to thwart the ill intentions of US politicians. According to the article, the arms sale is deemed intolerable due to its enormous value, nearing an unprecedented US$2 billion.
... the CSTT [WeChat account Cyberspace Strategy Think Tank] expects measures such as trials in absentia for “Taiwan independence” hardliners, which could lead to death sentences, as well as intercepting US weapons being sold to Taiwan.
At the same time, the NASAMS medium-range air defence solutions provided by the US are equipped with automated reconnaissance, firepower allocation command and control, and intelligence integration capabilities, which directly challenge the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to conduct aerial strikes and airborne landings.
Furthermore, the planned sale of advanced missile systems to Taiwan — systems also possessed by key US allies like Australia — raises concerns about potential network integration across the Pacific for intelligence sharing, posing a significant threat.
The CSTT suggests that, given the unprecedented breakthroughs in US arms sales to Taiwan, it is reasonable for China to respond with bold actions. Specifically, the CSTT expects measures such as trials in absentia for “Taiwan independence” hardliners, which could lead to death sentences, as well as intercepting US weapons being sold to Taiwan.
In July of this year, the CSTT published an article discussing how to intercept US weapons destined for Taiwan, claiming that the mainland could enact a law to prevent all foreign forces from selling and transporting weapons to Taiwan and stipulating that selling weapons to areas under China’s sovereignty by any foreign entity constitutes an act of aggression against China.
This would give China the right to conduct law enforcement inspections on maritime and aerial transport suspected of carrying weapons to Taiwan, and any consequences arising from non-cooperation during these inspections should be fully borne by the party transporting and selling the weapons.
... implementing a law to forcefully intercept external weapons destined for Taiwan would most likely have a significant negative impact on China-US relations, potentially even leading to direct military conflict. Therefore, such suggestions are unlikely to be adopted by the Chinese government.
Chinese looking at development, not military actions
Some academics have also suggested that China should respond to US arms sales to Taiwan by selling Chinese weapons to US adversaries.
In June, prominent military scholar Wang Yunfei suggested in an article that, given the US’s disregard for China’s objections and its continued arms sales to Taiwan, China could retaliate by selling weapons to US adversaries, such as Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and even groups like the Houthis and Hamas.
The article stated that if China decides to do so, it should first be “steady,” carefully weighing the pros and cons before taking action. Second, it should be “precise”, announcing arms sales to adversarial nations immediately after the US declares new arms sales to Taiwan for maximum impact. Third, the response should be “harsh,” aiming to strategically restrain the US’s regional proxies.
However, given the “strong US and weak China” dynamic, along with the Chinese leadership’s continued emphasis on maintaining “strategic focus” and prioritising development, implementing a law to forcefully intercept external weapons destined for Taiwan would most likely have a significant negative impact on China-US relations, potentially even leading to direct military conflict. Therefore, such suggestions are unlikely to be adopted by the Chinese government.
Likewise, selling weapons to US adversaries would further strain China-US relations and harm China’s ties with the neighbours of those receiving the arms, jeopardising China’s international image and security interests. China’s export of dual-use military and civilian products to Russia has already led to strong dissatisfaction from the US and EU, leading to sanctions against some Chinese companies; selling arms to groups like the Houthis and Hamas would undoubtedly provoke an even stronger reaction.
Overall, China remains strategically defensive in its relationship with the US. While declaring it will “resolutely counter” US arms sales to Taiwan, China’s countermeasures are unlikely to severely disrupt bilateral relations.
After all, to achieve its modernisation goals, China still prioritises strategic manoeuvring with the US and will not risk a showdown over arms sales to Taiwan.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国大陆如何“坚决反制”美国对台军售？”.
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