China ramps up combat readiness with its nuclear submarines
Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Yang Danxu analyses China’s submarine capabilities as it moves towards “nuclear and conventional capabilities with a focus on nuclear power”.
In conjunction with the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)’s 70th anniversary, the CCTV Defence and Military Channel aired a promotional video of the PLAN submarine unit last week. The video became a hot topic of discussion among Chinese military buffs.
A pillar of the nuclear triad
In the promotional video, a PLAN submarine unit officer summed up the development of the unit as emphasising “nuclear and conventional capabilities with a focus on nuclear power” (“核常兼备、以核为主”).
The description is seen as an authoritative statement for the PLAN submarine unit’s development, especially the phrase “focus on nuclear power”. It seemingly unveils the secret shroud of the submarine unit, portending China’s emphasis on the development of nuclear-powered submarines.
As China’s submarine research and development have been sluggish, and given that the PLAN has considered offshore defence as its primary strategic mission for many years, the submarine unit’s main approach to equipment and organisation has long been to “focus on conventional power”. The main emphasis was on conventionally powered submarines rather than nuclear-powered submarines.
But in comparison with conventionally powered submarines, nuclear submarines are quieter, and can operate for longer, dive deeper and navigate faster. Strategic nuclear submarines can also fulfil the important role of undersea deterrence, and is an indispensable pillar of a “nuclear triad”.
China’s nuclear submarine technology has attained a certain level of maturity and stability, and is able to be mass produced.
Recent analyses suggest a shift away from the Cold War principle of mutually assured destruction, with major countries now favouring preemptive strikes on all or most of an enemy’s offensive capabilities.
With this approach, the sea-based, submarine-launched ballistic missiles carried by nuclear submarines deployed long-term in the deep sea are superior to land or aerial-based nuclear strikes, as it is stealthier and has high mobility, among other advantages. Hence, nuclear-powered submarines are an increasingly valuable option for launching an effective nuclear counterattack.
China’s new sub comes to the surface
The PLAN’s announcement of the switch from “focus on conventional power” to “nuclear and conventional capabilities with a focus on nuclear power” is evidence that China’s nuclear submarine technology has attained a certain level of maturity and stability, and is able to be mass produced. Be it the production and manufacturing of equipment or the strategic training of the submarine unit, the PLAN’s focus would be shifted to nuclear submarines.
Chinese military buffs think that it will not be long before more Chinese nuclear submarines hit the waters. And when technological capability reaches a certain standard, it would be the norm to see China’s strategic nuclear submarines equipped with missiles cruising the waters, which is equivalent to a state of combat readiness.
Just prior to the Chinese officials sending this strong signal, Taiwanese fishermen on 18 June working around the median line of the Taiwan Strait snapped pictures of a PLAN Type 094 submarine surfacing, before leaving while accompanied by a PLAN surface combatant.
... the brazen appearance of this nuclear submarine in the Taiwan Strait could also be a deliberate move by the PLA as a new military deterrent.
The Type 094 is a second-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and its sudden surfacing in the sensitive Taiwan Strait has raised a great deal of concern outside China.
Some analysts believe that the nuclear-powered submarine may be returning to base for routine maintenance. The rare emergence of the submarine in the Taiwan Strait could be due to an expected situation forcing it to surface.
Other academics argue that given the frequent approach of PLA military aircraft and warships near Taiwan, the brazen appearance of this nuclear submarine in the Taiwan Strait could also be a deliberate move by the PLA as a new military deterrent. It is not only a show of strength to Taiwan but also to the US.
Taiwan analysts also speculate that the high-profile emergence of the Type 094 nuclear submarine could indicate that the more powerful third-generation Type 096 nuclear submarine will soon be — or is already — inducted into the fleet.
US on alert
While the reasons and intentions behind the surfacing of a PLA nuclear submarine in the Taiwan Strait cannot be determined, the capabilities of the PLAN’s submarine force have heightened Washington’s concerns.
Last year, a Wall Street Journal article titled “The Era of Total U.S. Submarine Dominance Over China Is Ending” pointed out that China’s advances in its submarine technology and undersea detection capabilities is narrowing one of the critical gaps separating the US and Chinese militaries. This poses major implications for the US military in planning for a potential conflict over Taiwan.
On the one hand, China’s enhanced anti-submarine capabilities would make it more complicated and difficult for US submarines to sink PLA warships and thwart an attack on Taiwan. On the other hand, Chinese submarines could be assigned to the east of Taiwan to stop the US and its allies from intervening.
Some analysts believe that the US’s cautious attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war in fact prompts Beijing to focus more on building up its nuclear forces, to prevent direct US intervention in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict.
The US Pentagon’s report on the military and security developments involving mainland China released last October pointed out that the PLA now has 60 submarines, including six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 48 diesel-powered/air-independent powered attack submarines. By 2035, China’s submarine force is expected to grow to 80 units.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, many became concerned about whether the world will enter a new nuclear arms race. A major reason why the US has not directly intervened in the Russia-Ukraine war so far is Russia’s possession of nuclear arms.
Some analysts believe that the US’s cautious attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war in fact prompts Beijing to focus more on building up its nuclear forces, to prevent direct US intervention in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s annual yearbook released in mid-June, China has amassed 500 warheads in its military stockpile as of January this year, an increase of 90 compared with last year.
The PLA’s move towards “nuclear and conventional capabilities with a focus on nuclear power” is also an important part of China’s efforts to improve its nuclear deterrence. The US would be more apprehensive about directly intervening in a potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Indeed, this “balance of terror” founded on nuclear power sends shivers down people’s spine.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国核潜艇要“下饺子”了？”.
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