Macron's visit: China making a tear in the 'iron curtain' drawn by the US?

Prior to French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to China, it was disclosed in the media that he was expected to have a six- to seven-hour meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. People were sceptical, but Macron's reception in China has indeed far exceeded expectations.

The highlight of Macron's three-day visit was the two leaders' informal meeting at the Pine Garden in Guangzhou. Images show Xi and Macron dressed in suits without ties, accompanied by an interpreter, strolling and talking in the garden, drinking tea and appreciating the sounds of the guqin playing "Lofty Mountains and Flowing Streams" (《高山流水》), which celebrates friendship.

In his conversation with Macron, Xi recalled going to Guangdong in the late 1970s to visit his father, Xi Zhongxun, who was then in charge of the province.

It is rare for a Chinese leader to receive a foreign head of state in such a manner, and it can be said that Macron has been accorded the highest courtesy in China in recent years.

But besides the decorum, there was also substance. During Macron's visit, Airbus received a US$20 billion bulk order from China for 160 commercial planes, while rail facilities manufacturer Alstom, shipping company CMA CGM, nuclear energy supplier Électricité de France, cosmetics company L'Oréal and France's pork industry all signed agreements to expand cooperation.

The rare interaction between the Chinese and French presidents, growing trade cooperation between both countries, and the 51-point joint statement released that made mention of the Ukraine issue, earned a lot of coverage. But what grabbed the most attention were the comments Macron made during his flight from Beijing to Guangzhou, which sparked a furor in the international media.

In an interview published on Politico on 9 April, Macron expressed hope that Europe would become a "third superpower" beyond China and the US, and stressed that Europe cannot be "America's followers" and must avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan.

He warned that "the great risk" Europe faces is that it "gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy".

He added, "The question Europeans need to answer... is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the US agenda and a Chinese overreaction."

Macron's visit and his comments thereafter send several signals: France refuses to equate its own interests with US interests and does not want to follow the US in "decoupling" from China; France does not want to get involved in the Taiwan issue and feels that Europe should also stay clear of it; and Europe should maintain strategic autonomy amid China-US rivalry.

As the president of France, a major European country that is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Macron's words certainly carry a lot of weight. Chinese public opinion described these statements that are in line with Beijing's position as "piercing the heart of Washington", while analysts asserted that Macron's visit to China is an important breakthrough in Beijing's "anti-encirclement" efforts, as China makes a tear in the "iron curtain" drawn by the US.

However, in the US and Europe, Macron faced strong backlash and was accused of "geopolitical blindness" and "isolating himself and weakening the European Union". Some critics also argued that Macron's statements are especially untimely as Beijing holds large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US.

Macron's statements, especially his refusal to be a "follower" of the US, are in part to reciprocate Beijing's warm hospitality towards him. But at the same time, they should come as no surprise as they are also in line with France's usual diplomatic stance.

France has a history of pursuing strategic autonomy. The core of Gaullism, which gained popularity in the 1960s, is to adhere to the principle of independence and autonomy, emphasise France's core leadership in Europe, safeguard France's position as a major power in international affairs, and avoid being reduced to a vassal of the US.

Under the influence of Gaullism, France withdrew from NATO's integrated military command structure in 1966 and only rejoined in 2009. After entering the Élysée Palace, Macron took on the mission of reclaiming France's international status and positioned himself as an heir of Gaullism.

However, Macron's position represents only part of Europe's voice - the uproar that his remarks caused reflects the existence of different voices and attitudes in Europe.

On the one hand, the US and Europe share similar values and ideologies, and it is difficult for Europe to separate itself from the US in terms of military and security. On the other hand, some European countries also have the desire to develop their relations with China independent of the US.

Despite knowing the difficulties in achieving a breakthrough, Europe still hopes to persuade Beijing to play a more active role in the Ukraine issue. At the same time, Europe is unable to bear the economic cost of "decoupling" from China, especially as Europe faces tremendous economic pressure amid rising energy prices, inflation and other problems since the Russia-Ukraine war.

While Beijing, which faces US containment, is happy to see Macron's advocacy of European strategic autonomy, it is unlikely that Europe will be completely independent of the US in terms of strategy, and a more realistic option is to seek a complex balance between China and the US over the long term.

At the same time, Beijing must continue to be wise and properly handle China-Europe relations. After all, China needs Europe just as much as Europe needs China, and China-Europe relations are much weaker than US-Europe relations.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as "马克龙访华和欧洲战略自主".

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